How bad are Portland’s progressive block leaders? This bad

How bad are Portland’s progressive block leaders? This bad

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Portland council’s openly socialist progressive bloc (Candace Avalos, Jamie Dunphy, Mitch Green, Sameer Kanal, Tiffany Koyama Lane, and Angelita Morillo) has been voting in lockstep.

As part of an Oregon Ethics Commission investigation to see if they violated either city and state law on negotiating outside of public meetings, a huge block of Teams messages has been acquired by public records request by Willamette Week. It reveals councilmembers discussing plans for government appropriation of buildings as well as airing grievances and annoyances at their colleagues as well as constituents. Even worse, they make it clear some of them lack even the most basic governance knowledge.

For example, on July 9th, Candace Avalos sent out a link to a story about the office tower Big Pink selling for $45 million – an astronomical collapse of 88% in value (It was last purchased in 2015 for $370 million). This was the exchange:

Dunphy: $45 million dollars? THAT’S IT??? Holy shit are we in market correction mode.

Candace Avalos: What does market correction mode mean?

Dunphy: Meaning that our real estate prices have been wildly out of control, and that the values of these buildings don’t match their worth, so now we’re seeing prices reduced to firesale levels, which will reduce property taxes etc

Candace Avalos: Reduce property taxes and therefore revenue the city gets?

Dunphy: Yes. Plus it will impact the evaluation of value for other buildings in the area,
Dunphy: It’s not inherently a bad thing, it’s not great, and we all knew our real estate prices were detached from reality, but this kind of a market correction can hurt. I’m less concerned about the biggest buildings be devalued, but it could have ripple effects to individual homes or condos etc

Candace Avalos: Forgive my ignorance here because this is NOT my area of expertise, but isn’t it good for these prices to go down? And if buildings are this cheap we can capitalize and do more buying as a city like we did recently with those 3 apartment buildings?

Dunphy: There are definitely some opportunities that could be beneficial, yes.

Candace Avalos: People’s individual homes have skyrocketed in value, making it so much harder for new people to get homes, so don’t we want them to go down?

Dunphy: Well, the problem then becomes having homeowners “underwater,” where the value of their home is worth less than the outstanding principal on their mortgage, so they won’t be able to refinance. There’s also a lot of these larger buildings that are owned by retirement accounts, so if the value of their portfolios decreases, retirees would see their investment portfolios decrease rapidly.

Candace Avalos: Hmm ok I see

This is a city councilmember, in charge of Portland’s $8.6 billion dollar budget, that doesn’t understand even the most basic concept of a real estate correction (one of the worst corrections in the entire country) and how it will utterly decimate the budget they are making. Instead, they look at it as an opportunity for the government to buy up buildings for their social programs cheaply.

Laser pointer stupidity in Portland

Laser pointer stupidity in Portland

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As part of the government troops at the Portland ICE facility, I can confirm that there is nightly military helicopter activity over downtown. You can hear it for hours as the copters circle and trade off flying over the ICE facility.

Sadly, our local protest-industrial complex geniuses started encouraging people to shine lasers at overhead aircraft. The problem? OHSU and Emanuel do Life Flight operations to downtown hospitals. OHSU is quite literally a block away from the ICE facility. Sadly, Life Flights have been mistakenly targeted to the point OHSU has stopped flight operations to the hospital. Patients are sent to the Hillsboro or other nearby airports – which can be a 30-90 min away by ambulance depending on traffic conditions.

One group of men arrested shining laser pointers at helicopters – turned out to be in the US illegally. They are now facing criminal charges and deportation. More recently, a man in Hillsboro was also just arrested and admitted to targeting an aircraft with a laser pointer. He admitted to the crime as well as got busted for possession of about 100 grams of meth (about $600-1000 worth).

It’s worth noting that using a laser pointer at an aircraft is a federal offense that can get you 1-5 years in federal prison and pointing one at a police officer is against Oregon state law.

Links:

More Portland commercial real estate collapse

More Portland commercial real estate collapse

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The former Gordon’s Fireplace Shop, a highly visible multi-story building right next to I-84, went out of business in 2016. Investors swooped in and bought it for $2.7 million in 2017 during Portland’s boom time. Sadly, it has become a vacant, graffiti-covered building as investors waited out the market.

In another clear sign of Portland’s unprecedented commercial real estate collapse, the building was just sold in 2025 for $575,000. A 78% decline in just 8 years.

This marks another major commercial property sold at more than a 70% discount in Portland. Since COVID and the riots of 2020, Portland has experienced the highest commercial vacancy rate in the country as well as a 3 year population decline as both businesses and residents flee the 2nd highest taxes in the country.

Good hiking survival gear list

Good hiking survival gear list

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Day hikes and backpacking trips don’t always go to plan – but do you actually have the things in your backpack that you need to survive? You might be surprised what can happen, here’s some of the real things I have encountered over the years:

  • Your hike may take much longer than you expect and the sun may go down.
  • You can get lost or have to re-route completely from your original trail due to washouts or dangerous conditions.
  • You can run out of water/food/snacks miles before you expect it. Sometimes bottles or water bladders leak. Sometimes squirrels/rodents eat your food or they fall out of an unzipped pocket.
  • The weather can unexpected change for the worse in a life-threatening way. Especially in higher altitudes where 1000′ of elevation can make a dramatic difference.
  • You or a member of your party can have a health emergency like a heart attack or a sprained ankle and be unable to walk out on your own power.
  • You might come across someone else who needs help.
  • Your car breaks down going or returning from a hike in the middle of nowhere. The road could become impassible on the way out – or you might even have your car vandalized or stolen from the trailhead.

Philip Werner has conducted CPR on hikers who’ve collapsed on trails, rehydrated hikers who were dehydrated, patched countless cuts, scrapes, bruises, and blisters, jump-started cars, changed flat tires, been overtaken by violent thunderstorms, and had water filters break days from civilization. I have encountered at least half of these things – and a few even more serious not on his list.

His list includes some very good recommendations/links for all the absolute necessities but I’d add a few more notes:

Bear Spray – useful even outside bear country. Sadly, here in Oregon, it is not unheard of to encounter dangerous people in the woods, homeless are living on public lands and can react in unexpected ways, armed cartels grow weed and performing other illegal activities. Sure this isn’t common for your day trip to Multnomah Falls with 2,000 other people per day. But anyone going on a hike alone or on very sparsely traversed trails would be wise to bring some minimal physical protection. Help is HOURS away – even after you call them (if you even have cell coverage).

Physical paper map and compass – Rescue teams in Oregon wish they had a dollar for each time they were told ‘I had the map on my phone’ when rescuing lost hikers. Phone batteries die way faster than people expect – especially when it gets cold or they are using the GPS constantly. Once that phone goes off, you’re completely without help. Bring a physically printed map in a ziplock bag in case it rains and a compass. And go learn how to use a compass. If you don’t know how to set a bearing on a compass and stay on target across rough terrain in a fog/storm – you don’t actually know how to navigate with a map and compass. Learn and practice!

Extra layered clothes – NO COTTON – If you get stuck overnight, t emps can and will drop almost 40 degrees in some cases. If you don’t have extra wicking layers to put on (not layers like cotton that will kill you when they get wet), then you might find yourself with serious hypothermia or death.

Emergency gear in your car – I have gotten back to my car and found that the battery was dead. I got back from a hike to find I had picked up a thorn and my tire was now flat. I had misjudged the hike, run out of water on the trail, and immediately GUZZLED all the drinks I left in the car. I was on a trail where the temps had dropped dramatically overnight and I ran across a guy who’s serpentine belt jumped off due to his half-frozen water pump. He was trying to get it back on in the snow, in freezing wind, with no tools and no gloves. And no cell service for either of us. My group once got back to the car to find the driver dropped the keys in the woods (fortunately we had 2 cars and a friend we called to bring a spare set – after an hour and half drive we waited out at a nearby pub). All of these could have become life threatening

Long story short: the adventure may not be done when you get to the car.

You should have a charged portable jump starter (that you checked before you left), a spare tire that you have checked the air pressure on and/or a portable air compressor with patch kit. Having a minimal tool set is a near essential too. Besides fixing the car, you should also have a jug of drinkable water, food, and extra clothing. You could get back and find your car won’t start. You could be facing an overnight in the car and a full day walk out to civilization – AFTER you’ve done a huge hike with soaking clothes. Have everything you need in the car to survive at least 2 more days.

Bic lighter and tinder – ignore those stupid flint and steel things. Fire will save your life – not having it could mean death. Unless you have trained on how to flint/steel in windy conditions with frozen hands in the rain/snow on wet material – use a lighter and pre-made tinder designed to light right up. Heck, leave a blow torch and a pile of wood in your car. You don’t want to die because you were screwing around with some hipster camping kit you got off Etsy.

Zip lock bags – you can spent hundreds on waterproof gear that inevitably fails/waterproofing wears off – or you can just get some Costco ziplock bags and make 100% sure your phone stays dry. And you can use it through the bag without opening it. You can keep your socks, the map, and anything else in them too. Get some one gallon ones and quart ones. You can even put the phone charger in the bag with the phone and charge it while using it – in the driving rain.

Is generalist indie game publishing over?

Is generalist indie game publishing over?

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I was talking to one publisher last year on the subject of wishlists. They told me they won’t launch a game unless it has over a specific number. I told them how many we had when we launched PlateUp! and I was told that wasn’t enough. We sold over 200,000 units in the first month, which was significantly more than predicted. And they subsequently issued a profit warning.

There’s no hiding the fact the game industry is going through an implosion. From the biggest studios to the smallest indies, layoffs and studio closing have been going on for 1-2 solid years now with no end immediately in sight. It’s not just bad for developers, it’s been really bad for indie publishers too. Publishers are trying to navigate stiff competition from competitors and over-investment that has flooded the market with games and tons of free content. While there have been some breakout hits, publishers say there is almost no rhyme or reason to it.

Publishers are finding the old ways don’t work. The industry is going through what one person calls ‘organizational disruption’. Amazing talent is now freely available on the market and seems to be finding success in embracing new niches and sub-genres.

Devolver’s Lowrie adds that although it may seem counterintuitive, risk aversion is actually the riskier approach. “Those that are willing to experiment and remain agile will find their hits and build an engaged audience,” he says. “Playing it safe isn’t going to be very safe at all.”

Instead, new studios are staying close to the developers and the nitch games they are developing to, as one dev said, “put themselves in the best places to get lucky”.