I was talking to one publisher last year on the subject of wishlists. They told me they won’t launch a game unless it has over a specific number. I told them how many we had when we launched PlateUp! and I was told that wasn’t enough. We sold over 200,000 units in the first month, which was significantly more than predicted. And they subsequently issued a profit warning.

There’s no hiding the fact the game industry is going through a bit of a slow motion implosion. From the biggest studios to the smallest indies, layoffs and studio closing have been going on for 1-2 solid years now with no end immediately in sight. It’s not just bad for developers, it’s been really bad for indie publishers too. Publishers are trying to navigate stiff competition from competitors and over-investment that has flooded the market with games and tons of free content. While there have been some breakout hits, publishers say there is almost no rhyme or reason to it.

Publishers are finding the old ways don’t work. The industry is going through what one person calls ‘organizational disruption’. Amazing talent is now freely available on the market and seems to be finding success in embracing new niches and sub-genres.

Devolver’s Lowrie adds that although it may seem counterintuitive, risk aversion is actually the riskier approach. “Those that are willing to experiment and remain agile will find their hits and build an engaged audience,” he says. “Playing it safe isn’t going to be very safe at all.”

Instead, new studios are staying close to the developers and the nitch games they are developing to, as one dev said, “put themselves in the best places to get lucky”.