It seems Oregon, and specifically Portland, have lost their luster. Portland and Oregon went from being the #1 place to move in the US to having a net LOSS of population in just 2 years.

Part of this is due to people moving out of urban areas during the pandemic and remote work – but Oregon has faired even worse than other metro areas. Much worse. Multnomah county (which encompasses most of Portland) declined by 12,494 people, or 1.5% along with a more modest decline (0.2%) in the Portland metro area (Beaverton, Vancouver, etc).

How did this happen? How did a city go from the #1 place to move to just about last place? Some of the top posited reasons:

• Some unhappy city recovery stats:
  • Stanford study shows Portland has one of the lowest overall lowest recovery rates in the country
  • A University of California, Berkeley report (“Death of Downtown?”) finds the same – Portland came in 60th, with a recovery value of 41% compared with pre-pandemic activity. Only San Francisco (31%) and Cleveland, Ohio (36%) fared worse.
  • They also have one of the slowest visitor recovery rates in the country .
• Oregon stats are continuing to decline
  • Homelessness issues have degraded to a state of emergency in Oregon and the Portland metro area. Horrific attacks on random strangers has become common.
  • Oregon now has gotten worse since 2019 and now has the 2nd highest drug addiction rates in the country. I wonder if legalizing drug use hasn’t contributed to the dramatic increase in addition and even more dramatic increase in overdose deaths.
• Schools:
  • The last audit of PPS in 2019 (even before Covid) revealed that despite high funding, Portland public schools deliver dramatically poorer educational results for students, have very problematic spending, serious issues with financial waste and abuse issues due to lack of oversight, and 26 other specific problem areas identified that need to be remedied.
  • Schools have seen dramatically larger decreases in reading and math scores since Covid started compared to other states. Middle school results cratered to the 6th worst in the nation. It probably doesn’t help we ended the requirement for students to demonstrate reading, writing and math proficiency in order to receive a diploma.
  • Public school system now consistently ranks in the bottom 5 worst in the nation.
  • Things are so bad that between 2019-2022 20% of students were pulled from Portland Public schools by parents that either moved out or sent them to private schools. The enrollment declines are expected to increase going forward despite higher than average funding compared to other states.
  • Oregon state’s enrollment losses, which total 30,000, or 5%, were the second highest in the country, according to Stanford University’s data-driven Big Local News project. Only Mississippi lost a larger share.
  • 2023 Oregon’s National Merit Scholarship winners are increasingly located outside the Portland metro area – demonstrating the continual decline of Portland school education.
• Taxes:
  • Tax rates for anyone earning over $100,000 a year are now the second highest effective tax rate in the country – only behind New York City millionaires by 0.09%. We will become the highest tax rate starting 2024 when city taxes are slated to rise another 1-2%.
• Having over over 100 straight nights of violent and destructive riots sure couldn’t help
• Crime
  • More than double the number of annual shootings (from 300 shootings in 2019 to 900 shootings in 2020 with even worse statistics for 2021). Shooting that are now increasingly happening in schools
  • Near doubling of crime: from murder to property crimes since 2019.
  • Auto thefts per-capital have doubled in 2 years to almost 1000 vehicles per month.

Links:

• https://thatoregonlife.com/2023/01/oregon-sees-sharp-decline-in-population-for-first-time-since-1983/
• https://www.wweek.com/news/city/2022/03/24/portland-metro-population-declines-amid-american-flight-from-major-cities/